How Small Businesses Can Win Big During Black Friday 2025

As businesses prepare for the Black Friday–Cyber Monday weekend, we offer practical insights to e-commerce businesses looking to fill the coffers before Xmas.

If you’re a business owner worried that the cost of living might keep Aussies away from this year’s Black Friday sales, we have some good news. Shopify’s new 2025 Global Holiday Retail Report found Australians plan to spend 43 per cent more this Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend than they did last year.

That’s the sharpest rise among the nine markets surveyed, putting local consumers in a more spendy mood than even Americans or Brits. But this isn’t reckless splurging, fifty-one per cent of shoppers are setting strict budgets and 23 per cent say they’ll be even stricter than before.

Australia’s e-commerce sector now counts more than 110,000 active businesses and contributes approximately $65–69 billion annually to the economy. The opportunity for businesses this November is extra strong, as 26 per cent of shoppers surveyed say they plan to prioritise buying Australian to support the local economy or access better customer service.

How To Prepare Your Business For Black Friday Sales

Even though Black Friday sales have been running in Australia since about 2013 and Cyber Monday emerged globally in 2005, the report reveals that only 13 per cent of Australian retailers ran promotions before October, despite one in four consumers starting their holiday shopping as early as September.

Shopify’s data presented a few ways that businesses can get out in front of these major opportunities.

1. Treat sales as a cash-flow event

The report recommends owners think of major sales events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday as a stress test for liquidity. Platforms like Shopify and Stripe pay out weekly or fortnightly, which can make cash flow look healthier than it really is. Before the rush, Shopify recommends you use AI to model a few scenarios, for example, if you take in 40 per cent of your December revenue in a single week, will you still have enough on hand to restock and cover payroll the following Friday?

2. Pre-order with discipline

Both Netstock or Shopify recommend using around two years of sales data and forecasting tools to get a clear idea of what stock you’ll need. For best sellers, order roughly 10–15 per cent above last year’s top sellers. Don’t be tempted to double orders,  it’s notoriously hard to move excess stock in January.

3. Focus on smart bundling and clear value

Shopify’s data shows that smart product bundling can lift your average order value without slashing prices. The key is pairing items that naturally belong together and making the value obvious.Carefully curated bundles that reflect what your customers actually want tend to drive repeat purchases and long-term profit. Roughly 29 per cent of Australian shoppers surveyed also say rewards programs influence where they buy next.

4. Use AI to meet shopper expectations

Sixty-four per cent of the Australian consumers surveyed in the report say they plan to use AI tools like chatbots or personalised product recommendations to find deals this Black Friday, with adoption rising to 84 per cent among Gen Z shoppers. However, trust remains crucial, as 73 per cent still value genuine human interaction in their shopping experience.

5. Advertise locally, not everywhere

The Shopify report also shows businesses upping spend across social ads (42 per cent), online (33 per cent) and email (25 per cent). For small businesses, though, the data shows that geo-targeted social ads within a 10 km radius convert three to four times better than national campaigns, especially for service-based SMBs.

Source: Shopify’s 2025 Global Holiday Retail Report

Loyalty Is the Real Black Friday Metric

Shopify’s Report makes it clear that while splashy discounts may attract shoppers, delivering a good shopping experience determines what they spend and if they’ll return.
Nearly half of consumers in the survey say they expect a fast, frictionless checkout, and will abandon a purchase if the point of sale becomes too difficult.

Trust also plays a critical role in retention, with around 20 per cent of shoppers citing honest updates on pricing and shipping as key to their loyalty. Free shipping and easy returns remain a top motivator for repeat purchases for 41 per cent of consumers.

The report also showed that 21 per cent of Australians use the holiday season to discover new local brands, a significant opportunity for small businesses, and that a third of Australians plan to shop more consciously this year.

These big sales events are a great opportunity for brands to communicate their commitments, whether it’s sustainable packaging or supporting local jobs, to connect long term with a bunch of new customers ready to spend.