Retail, Hospo Jobs Boom as SMEs pray for a Christmas miracle

• Employment Hero’s November SmartMatch Employment Report reveals positive job growth for retail & hospitality to kick off peak season.
• Retail & hospitality job growth jumped by 2.2% in November – however, annual employment growth is stagnant at just 0.3%. 
• Casual hours down 13.1% YoY, but a 6.2% monthly rise suggests signs of recovery
• Wage Growth figures highlight Brisbane’s boom while Tasmania’s now trails inflation
• 22% YoY surge in property valuer hours – is the real estate market about to move?

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – December 19, 2024: Amid the end-of-year rush, Employment Hero’s latest SmartMatch Employment Report (SMER) indicates the retail and hospitality sectors’ bounce-back is in full swing, kicking-off the festive season.

On the tailwind of Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales, the retail and hospitality sector showed a 2.1 per cent increase in jobs growth; the strongest Month-on-Month (MoM) growth of any sector- and the first time we have seen an uptick in this industry since November 2023.

The report, informed by real-time, verified payroll data from over 1.1 million Australians and  300,000 SMEs globally, ‘shows that despite a challenging year for retail and hospitality, November’s record-breaking Black Friday has set the stage for a retail recovery – with businesses pinning their hopes on a busy holiday season to turn the tide.

Ben Thompson, Chief Economist and CEO of Employment Hero said the resilience shown by Australia’s retail and hospitality sector during a critical year is starting to pay off. 

“After a year marked by unprecedented insolvencies and closures, retail and hospitality businesses are gearing up with renewed optimism for their busiest season. Following a record Black Friday, there’s hope that healthy sales figures this holiday period will provide much-needed momentum heading into the new year, but we need to be mindful of broader challenges faced by SMEs.” 

“While the seasonal spike reflects encouraging consumer activity, year-on-year growth in the retail and hospitality sectors was subdued, at just 0.3% higher than in November 2023. In contrast, other industries saw significant growth in employment including consulting and strategy (+19.8%) and office support (+20.2%), underscoring the broader shifts in the employment landscape and the availability of work. For the retail and hospitality sectors, the next few months will be crucial in determining whether this holiday boost can set the stage for a brighter 2025.”

Other key findings from the November SMER data: 

Overall employment growth remains stable at 4.4% YoY,  while overall wage growth has increased to 6% (12 month rolling average). However, dwindling hours for casual workers and plateauing trends signal potential headwinds for 2025:

• Casual Workers Feel the Pinch:
  • While casual employees saw a 6.2% MoM recovery in hours worked, the broader picture remains concerning with a 13.1% YoY decline.
  • Key sectors reliant on casual workers: education (-7.3% YoY), healthcare (-5.8% YoY), and retail and hospitality (-5.9% YoY) – continue to report significantly reduced monthly hours.
  • These reductions suggest cost-cutting measures are still impacting workers, even during peak hiring periods, signalling broader implications for the Australians these vital sectors serve.
    

• Signs of movement in the property market:
  • Demand for property valuers has surged, with median monthly hours worked rising 8.3% MoM and 22.3% YoY. This uptick could signal a potential mortgage stress-induced property sell-off from homeowners struggling with high interest rates. Conversely, it could signal the market’s anticipation of rate cuts, as buyers and sellers prepare for a potential market shift. 
• Wage Growth a Mixed Bag:
  • Median hourly wages were flat MoM (-0.2%) but showed a 5.9% YoY increase, largely driven by high-demand functions like banking and finance (+10.0%) and truck drivers (+14.9%).
  • Wage growth disparities are stark. Tasmania reported only 2.5% YoY wage growth, slipping behind the inflation rate (2.8%), while Brisbane outpaced other capitals with a 9.3% YoY rise, driven by rising property prices and pre-Olympic demand.
• Queensland Dominates Job Growth:
  • Queensland leads state employment growth with a 5.1% YoY increase, reflecting the effects of population growth and supportive migration policies.
  • Nationally, employment growth was particularly strong among young professionals aged 25-34, who recorded a 5.7% YoY increase, further highlighting their importance as the backbone of Australia’s workforce.

Thompson concluded: “Our November employment data highlights the complexities of Australia’s job market beyond what the standard national indicators might suggest. While seasonal hiring offers short-term gains for struggling businesses, we’re not out of the woods yet.

“Long-term challenges like shrinking hours for casuals in our most critical sectors, or inconsistent wage growth, can’t be ignored. This comes amidst a tight job market where nationally, candidates far outweigh job openings.

“Job seekers are being pushed to ‘up’ their game to succeed in a competitive market, and I’d advise employers to do the same – adapting to volatile conductions and strategising on how to remain competitive is crucial for what could be another tough year for business in 2025″.