Small businesses got their clearest hint yet of what the Autumn Budget might hold as the Labour Party conference kicked off in Liverpool on Monday. 

In his first conference speech, Chancellor John Healey set out a string of pledges aimed at improving growth in the UK, weeks before the Autumn Budget’s delivery on 28 October.

Signal One: A New Apprenticeship Fund Tied to the Milburn Review

Confirming £100m for a new Local Apprenticeship Service, the Chancellor told the audience: “The best thing we can offer a young person isn’t a benefit. It’s a first job. With training. And a wage.” Local teams in mayoral areas will act, in Healey’s words, “like football scouts,” matching young people with employers, including businesses that have never taken on an apprentice.

Healey called the service “a down payment” on a fuller review by former cabinet minister Alan Milburn, whose recommendations on tackling youth unemployment are due this autumn. Nearly a million 16 to 24-year-olds were not in education, employment or training between April and June, according to the latest official figures. For SMEs in sectors already competing for younger workers, from construction to hospitality, the scheme suggests that apprenticeship funding and recruitment support are likely to feature again – perhaps to an even broader degree – when the fuller Milburn recommendations land.

Signal Two: Regional Investment Beyond Westminster

For SMEs outside London, the Government’s ongoing commitment to investing in regions spanning the UK suggests local supply chains and job markets could see a direct boost. 

Healey pointed to Rolls-Royce’s £300m investment in factories in Derby, Bristol, Glasgow and Rotherham as an early example, calling it “a new confidence in Britain lit by this government, driven forward by business.” While Rolls-Royce is a major business, large employers like it expanding regionally typically pulls smaller local suppliers, contractors and service businesses along with it – which could be a real boost for businesses in the aforementioned cities. 

The Chancellor also cited Rotherham’s Advanced Manufacturing Park, built on the site of the former Orgreave colliery, as a symbol of the same shift: a place that lost manufacturing jobs when the coal industry collapsed is now attracting new industrial investment. Separately, the Government confirmed a contract for new Royal Navy dock facilities at Faslane in Scotland, restricted to UK-based firms only, a further sign that government contracts are being steered toward domestic suppliers rather than international ones.

Signal Three: A Revived Fund for Adult Retraining

Further details of the speech saw Healey confirm £15m to revive the Union Learning Fund, a scheme that will help workers retrain in skills such as English, maths and digital literacy, including training to adapt to AI. The fund, which closed in 2021, will run through workplaces and cover course fees, and Healey said it would be open to staff regardless of whether their workplace is unionised. For SMEs, particularly outside London, this is another way to fund training for staff already on the payroll.

Separately, the Government confirmed this week that its digital employment tools are gaining traction: around 20,000 jobseekers have used the Department for Work and Pensions’ Work Hub CV builder since its launch in June, and 16,000 have used its AI-powered Work Assistant. For SMEs struggling to find candidates, that points to a growing pool of jobseekers arriving with government-supported, better-prepared applications.

Signal Four: A Pledge of Fiscal Discipline Before 28 October

Healey paired his growth announcements with a commitment to “fiscal discipline,” telling delegates his first Budget would give the public “breathing space” while still driving “good growth and jobs in more places.” He argued the UK faces tighter conditions than when he served as a junior Treasury minister under Gordon Brown, pointing to what he called the legacy of Conservative-era debt. That combination of regional pledges alongside a fiscal discipline pledge could mean more targeted support for SMEs than broad giveaways. But it could just as easily mean a tighter Budget with less on offer overall.

What the Numbers Say About These Pledges

The CBI’s Growth Indicator survey, published the same day, provided a far less optimistic picture of the economy. It found that private sector activity fell in the three months to September, with firms expecting further decline in the three months to December. Alpesh Paleja, the CBI’s deputy chief economist, said rising energy and employment costs, combined with weak demand, are continuing to squeeze margins: “Uncertainty ahead of next month’s Budget is also holding back activity in some sectors,” he said. “Against the backdrop of renewed fiscal pressures, the Budget must draw a clear red line under any more rises in the cost of hiring, investing and doing business.”

That warning lines up with what Employment Hero’s hiring data is showing. According to its most recent Employment Index, its monthly pulse of 4.7k UK small and medium businesses, UK job vacancies have continued to fall even as wage growth keeps outpacing inflation, leaving SMEs with less room to absorb any further increase in employment costs. Data on the youth labour market from the same report also shows construction and trade hiring for Gen Z workers outpacing retail and hospitality this summer, the kind of sector where a wider apprenticeship push could have the most impact.

More signs of what businesses should expect from the budget will emerge through Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s anticipated speech on Tuesday 29 September. Whatever he adds on reindustrialisation, apprenticeships and redressing unemployment, the delivery of the Autumn Budget on 28 October will determine which of these pledges SMEs can truly plan around.