Seasonal job ads edge up in early November, but Canada’s small businesses remain cautious.

Every fall, employers across Canada gear up for the holiday rush. Retailers adjust schedules, delivery services brace for longer hours and shopping malls prepare for their busiest stretch of the year. But while seasonal hiring has picked up after a slow couple of years, the numbers reveal a story that’s more complex than it first appears.

Job postings for seasonal roles rose 12 per cent year-over-year as of early November, according to new figures from Indeed. The uptick breaks a downward trend that’s been running since 2022, but seasonal demand is still well below pre-pandemic levels. Most notably, Canada’s small businesses, the ones powering Main Streets and local shopping strips, are largely sitting this one out.

As of Nov. 4, postings containing keywords like “seasonal,” “holiday,” “Santa” or “Christmas” were up compared to the same period in 2024, but still down 8 per cent from 2023 and 35 per cent from 2022. “The break in the downward trend is still good news for those seeking temporary employment around year-end,” Brendan Bernard, senior economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, wrote.

Seasonal postings now account for 1.34 per cent of all Canadian job ads on the platform, up from 1.23 per cent in early November last year. It’s a small lift, but the first such increase in three years.

Bernard points to steady 2025 sales at brick-and-mortar retailers and a levelling off in the e-commerce share of retail, which has held at about six per cent compared to last year, as factors behind the rebound.

Small business hiring stays flat as economic headwinds continue

Despite the headline boost in postings, the story shifts when zooming in on small businesses. A new survey by Merchant Growth, published via Business Wire, found that 77 per cent of small retail and foodservice businesses in Canada aren’t hiring additional staff for the holiday season. Nearly half expect consumers to spend less this year, citing inflation and higher day-to-day costs as reasons. “Business owners are feeling the squeeze as wages, rent and supply costs continue to climb, with little sign of a rebound in consumer confidence,” said David Gens, founder and CEO of Merchant Growth.

Of those not hiring, 28 per cent said they couldn’t afford extra wages. Another 24 per cent said they’ve had trouble finding qualified workers. For 15 per cent, the hiring hesitation stems from uncertainty around sales projections.

Even among those forecasting growth (55 per cent expect higher sales than last year), most are prioritizing cost control. Gens said many respondents were weighing potential upside against the risks of overcommitting resources in a still-volatile economy.

Holiday hiring trends 2025: fewer deals, tighter staffing

Seasonal hiring isn’t the only thing showing restraint. Promotional activity has also taken a back seat, particularly among smaller operators. Merchant Growth’s data found that only 38 per cent of small businesses ran Black Friday deals, 17 per cent were offering Cyber Monday promotions and 35 per cent are planning sales for Boxing Week. That leaves more than 4 in 10 small businesses without any discounts or promotions planned for the holidays: a striking figure during what is traditionally the busiest retail period of the year.

Some businesses, though, remain hopeful. Among those anticipating higher sales, 63 per cent are projecting gains between 11 and 25 per cent. But expectations are uneven. One in four businesses surveyed said they’re bracing for a drop in holiday revenue, blaming elevated prices and weaker consumer spending power.

There’s also a broader shift underway, particularly when it comes to cross-border trade. Ten per cent of the surveyed businesses reported scaling back shipments to the United States due to increased tariffs and regulatory friction. For SMBs relying on cross-border volume to offset domestic dips, that’s yet another pressure point.

More jobseekers, fewer permanent roles

While employers are taking a cautious approach, interest in seasonal jobs is rising. According to Bernard, job seeker searches containing seasonal terms have increased for a third consecutive year. In early November, those searches accounted for 3.1 out of every 1,000 searches on Indeed; up from 2.5 in 2023 and 2.2 in 2022. “Stronger interest in seasonal work isn’t a great sign for the health of the overall labour market,” Bernard wrote, noting that more Canadians appear to be turning to temporary roles as permanent jobs become harder to land.

That demand mismatch creates a new tension. While workers are increasingly open to short-term gigs to cover end-of-year costs, many employers, especially smaller ones, are either staying lean or forgoing extra hiring altogether.

Employment lawyers have also flagged that seasonal employees have the same employment-related rights as permanent staff. That includes protections around layoffs, termination and workplace safety. For smaller businesses already stretched thin, this can further complicate decisions around short-term hiring.

The result? A holiday season that looks different from years past. There are more ads in circulation and more workers searching, but far fewer commitments being made. For SMBs, that might be a strategy. For jobseekers, it’s a reminder that even in the busy season, temporary roles aren’t guaranteed.nt, engaged and productive teams in the years to come.